CME Scoreboard

Prediction for CME (2014-01-04T21:25:00-CME-001)

SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/05 JANUARY 2014 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 05 JANUARY AND FORECAST FOR 06 JANUARY - 08 JANUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 05 Jan: Moderate
Flares Max Fadeout Freq. Sectors
 M1/-- 04/2252UT observed lower East Pacific/
 North American
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 05 Jan: 218/168
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
 06 Jan 07 Jan 08 Jan
Activity Moderate Moderate Moderate
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 220/170 220/170 215/165
COMMENT: Low levels of solar activity were observed today. Several 
C-class flares were observed, the largest being a C6.6 flare 
from region 1944 (S10E29) that peaked at 1518UT. Yesterday's 
late flare, that could not be included in yesterday's report, 
was an M1.9 flare from region 1936(15W90) at 2252UT. The CME 
associated with the M4 flare (4 Jan/1946) seems to be having 
a geoeffective component. A glancing blow may be observed on 
7 January due to this event. As anticipated, the solar wind stream 
showed further weakening as the coronal hole moves out of geoeffective 
location. The solar wind speed gradually decreased from 460 to 
400 km/s over the UT day today. The Bz component of IMF mostly 
varied between +/-4 nT during this time. Moderate levels of solar 
activity may be expected for the next 3 days with some possibility 
of isolated X-class activity.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 05 Jan: Quiet
Estimated Indices 05 Jan : A K 
 Australian Region 4 22211101
 Darwin 3 22101102
 Townsville 4 22211101
 Learmonth 4 22211101
 Alice Springs 2 22100101
 Culgoora 3 12211101
 Gingin 4 32201001
 Camden 4 2221111-
 Canberra 1 12100000
 Launceston 5 22221102
 Hobart 4 22211101 
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 05 Jan :
 Macquarie Island 2 11210000
 Casey 17 45432112
 Mawson 13 34324212
 Davis 11 23334211
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 05 Jan : 
 Darwin 2 (Quiet)
 Townsville 0 (Quiet)
 Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
 Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
 Gingin 0 (Quiet)
 Canberra 2 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather 
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 05 Jan : A 
 Fredericksburg 4
 Planetary 5 
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 04 Jan : A K
 Fredericksburg 6
 Planetary 4 0002 2221 
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date Ap Conditions
06 Jan 4 Quiet
07 Jan 10 Unsettled to Active
08 Jan 8 Quiet to Unsettled
COMMENT: Geomagnetic activity mostly stayed at Quiet levels today. 
Nearly similar conditions may be expected on 6 January. Activity 
may rise from Quiet to Active levels on 7 January and then decline 
to Unsettled to Quiet levels on 8 January.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
 Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High 
05 Jan Normal Normal Normal 
PCA Event : 10MeV Proton/PCA Event Began 29 12 2013 1905UT and is in progress
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
 Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High 
06 Jan Normal Normal Normal
07 Jan Normal Normal-fair Normal-fair
08 Jan Normal Normal Fair-normal
COMMENT: Mostly normal HF conditions were observed over the last 
24 hours on most locations. Periods of presence of sporadic E 
layers were also observed. HF conditions are expected to be mostly 
normal on 6 January. Minor degradations in HF conditions and 
MUF depressions may be observed on 7 January and early on 8 January 
due to an expected rise in geomagnetic activity levels during 
this period. Mostly normal HF conditions may be expected from 
the second half of 8 January. Short wave fadeouts may be possible 
from 6 to 8 January due to the potential of flaring activity 
on the sun.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
05 Jan 127
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
 Cocos Island Region:
 No data available during local day.
 No data available during local night.
 Niue Island Region:
 Near predicted monthly values during local day.
 No data available during local night.
 Northern Australian Region:
 Enhanced by 15% during local day.
 Enhanced by 25% during local night.
 Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
 Near predicted monthly values during local day.
 Enhanced by 15% during local night.
 Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
 Enhanced by 15% over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Dec 130
Jan 73
Feb 71
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
06 Jan 135 Near to 20% above predicted monthly values
07 Jan 120 Near predicted monthly values
08 Jan 125 Near to 10% above predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Mostly normal HF conditions were observed over the last 
24 hours in the Aus/NZ region. Periods of presence of sporadic 
E layers were also observed. HF conditions are expected to be 
mostly normal on 6 January. Minor degradations in HF conditions 
and MUF depressions may be observed on 7 January and early on 
8 January due to an expected rise in geomagnetic activity levels 
during this period. Mostly normal HF conditions may be expected 
from the second half of 8 January. Short wave fadeouts may be 
possible from 6 to 8 January due to the potential of flaring 
activity on the sun.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 04 Jan
 Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 6.6E+05
 Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.0E+04
 Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 3.70E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 5%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
 X-ray background: C1.7
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 04 Jan
Speed: 505 km/sec Density: 2.4 p/cc Temp: 146000 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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